Mechanical permits are the most underused lead source in North Carolina HVAC. Every system that goes in legally leaves a public record with an address, a date, a scope, and usually the licensed contractor who pulled it.
Two very different plays from one dataset
New construction: the Raleigh–Cary metro authorized 1,152 single-family homes in June 2026, and Durham–Chapel Hill authorized 863 total units. Those permits precede mechanical rough-in by weeks. If you install for builders, you are bidding on filings, not on framed houses.
Replacement: mechanical change-out permits tell you the age and brand pattern of a neighborhood. A subdivision that permitted 180 homes in 2011 is now hitting the 15-year mark on original equipment — the single best replacement list you can build in the Triangle, and it's sitting in public records.
1,152
New Raleigh–Cary single-family permits, June 2026 — each one a future rough-in
2,900
Construction jobs added statewide in NC in June 2026
3.6%
NC unemployment rate, June 2026 — crews are tight, so speed on bids matters
What to filter on
- Permit type containing mechanical, HVAC, or heating and cooling, plus new residential permits where mechanical hasn't been pulled yet.
- Job value bands. A $6,000 to $14,000 residential mechanical permit is almost always a change-out; a $150,000+ mechanical permit is commercial rooftop or VRF work.
- Contractor field blank or owner-listed — those are the jobs still looking for an installer.
Timing your outreach
Triangle summer load means change-out demand spikes with the first sustained stretch above 90°F. Contractors who already have a list of 12-to-18-year-old systems by street don't scramble in July — they were booked in May.