Mini-split permits in NC jumped 61% this summer, mostly for sunrooms and garages

Ductless mini-splits had a big summer in North Carolina. In June 2026 the number of homes filing for one jumped by about 40 percent over June 2025, and it stayed high through September. Most of the growth wasn't people replacing a worn-out system. It was rooms the house's ducts never reached: sunrooms and screened porches being closed in, garages turned into workshops and gyms, bonus rooms and sheds. Then, on September 1, Energy Saver North Carolina, the state's income-based rebate program for heat pumps, stopped paying to replace gas and other fossil-fuel systems and started paying to replace older electric ones.

Quick answers

What the permits show: a jump that started in June

In the seven offices in this count, Brunswick County, Wake County, Greensboro, Gaston County, Onslow County, Alamance County and High Point, the number of homes with a mini-split permit ran at about 45 to 80 a month through 2025 and the first five months of 2026. In June 2026 it jumped to 103, then 119 in July and 108 in August, before easing to 83 in September. Over June to September, 400 homes filed, against 249 in 2025 and 246 in 2024, so 2025 wasn't an unusually slow year: 2026 is the outlier.

It isn't just more permits of every kind. Homes with a permit for anything rose 10 percent over the same months in the same offices. Ducted heat pumps rose 20 percent (1,192 homes to 1,436) and furnaces 11 percent (826 to 914). Mini-splits rose 61 percent.

Sunrooms, garages and bonus rooms

The descriptions say where the units went. In 2026, 198 of the 400 homes named a room the main system doesn't serve: a sunroom or porch on 72, a garage on 92, a bonus room, attic or room over the garage on 25, a shed, workshop, studio or guest house on 27, and additions and basements on the rest (some name more than one). In the same months of 2025 that was 85 homes. Replacements of an existing system, written as a change-out or a replacement, barely moved: 61 homes in 2025, 64 in 2026.

So the growth is new conditioned space, not old equipment wearing out. A typical permit reads like "install 12,000 BTU mini-split in sunroom" or "ductless mini split heat pump to provide heating and cooling for the garage", and in Brunswick County many come attached to a remodel that closes in a screened porch or finishes a room over the garage.

What a mini-split job looks like on a permit

• One small unit. Of the 156 summer 2026 permits that state a size, the median is 12,000 BTU, about 1 ton; 12,000, 9,000 and 18,000 BTU make up nine in ten of them.
• Two trades. 246 of the 568 mini-split permits filed this summer were electrical permits for the unit's circuit, up from 154 of 340 a year earlier. In Brunswick County and Greensboro the HVAC contractor and an electrician often file separately; Wake County puts both on one trade permit.
• A modest ticket. Wake County's summer 2026 mini-split permits that state a value had a median of $7,500.
• Many installers. 185 different companies and individuals are named on this summer's permits. The busiest were in Brunswick County: Sandpiper Heating & Air Conditioning (31 permits), Mansfield Sales & Repair (23) and Blaze-Cape Fear (14). In Greensboro, Central Carolina A/C Co. filed 14.

Energy Saver NC: what changed on September 1

Energy Saver North Carolina is the state's federally funded home energy rebate program, run by the Department of Environmental Quality. It started in a limited number of counties in January 2025 and, DEQ announced on February 10, 2026, is now open in all 100. Households earning under 80 percent of their area's median income can get up to the full cost covered, up to a cap, and households at 80 to 150 percent up to half. The cap for a heat pump for heating and cooling is $8,000, and the work has to be done by a contractor the program has approved. By that February announcement, the program had more than 4,800 applications and 51 completed projects.

On May 29, 2026, the U.S. Department of Energy issued new guidance for the program, and from September 1, 2026, every HEAR application that hadn't yet reached a rebate reservation has to follow it. Three things changed: HEAR rebates no longer pay to replace gas or other fossil-fuel appliances; they do now pay to replace existing electric equipment with more efficient electric equipment; and insulation and air sealing may be required alongside a heat pump project.

That change can't be seen in these numbers. The jump began in June, before it, and a program with 51 finished projects in February is too small to explain 150 more homes in one summer. What it changes is the next one: a homeowner replacing baseboard heat, an old electric furnace or an aging heat pump is now inside the program, and one switching off gas or propane is not.

What it means for your business

• HVAC contractors: the growth is in single-room jobs, not system replacements. Sunroom builders, garage-conversion contractors and remodelers who finish bonus rooms are the people deciding who installs the unit, and their own permits show up first.
• Electricians: four in ten mini-split permits are for the circuit. The HVAC companies doing the most of these in your county are a steady source of small jobs.
• Sunroom, porch and remodeling contractors: a closed-in porch or finished garage almost always needs its own heating and cooling now. Quoting the mini-split with the room, or partnering with an installer who does, keeps the job in one hand.
• Suppliers and distributors: the units are small, mostly 9,000 to 18,000 BTU single-zone systems, and the summer peak came in June and July.
• Homeowners: get the mechanical permit, and the electrical one if your office requires it, so an inspector checks the line set, the disconnect and the circuit. If you're income-eligible, check Energy Saver NC before you sign: since September 1 its HEAR rebates pay for electric-to-electric upgrades but not for replacing a gas system.

Every permit counted here is in TarSignal's Permit Search. Search the work description for "mini split" or "ductless" to see each job, its address, its value and the contractor, in any office we cover, or set a Project Alert for new ones.

How these numbers were counted

• Permits are counted by the date they were filed with the office (or issued, where an office records no filing date, as in Brunswick County and Greensboro), from January 2024 to September 30, 2026. Only offices whose records describe trade work and whose permit counts stayed steady over the period are included: Brunswick County, Wake County, City of Greensboro, Gaston County, Onslow County, Alamance County and High Point. Mecklenburg, Cabarrus, Union and Johnston don't describe the equipment on their mechanical permits; Raleigh and Durham file little separate trade work; Cary and others grew in our records during the period.
• A mini-split permit is one whose permit type or work description says "mini split", "mini-split", "minisplit" or "ductless". Withdrawn, voided, cancelled and denied permits are left out. Each home is counted once per office in each window (each month in the chart, each June–September in the table), so a job filed as a mechanical and an electrical permit counts once. A job whose description doesn't name the equipment isn't counted, so these are counts of described work, best read as trends.
• Rooms are matched in the descriptions on a home's permits: sunroom, porch or three- or four-season room; garage or carport; bonus room, room over the garage or attic; addition; shed, barn, workshop, studio, outbuilding, accessory building, pool house or guest house; basement. Replacements are descriptions that say replace, change-out or like for like. Heat pumps are permits that mention a heat pump but not a mini-split, and furnaces those that mention a furnace, counted by home the same way.
• Sizes are from the 156 summer 2026 mini-split permits that state a size in BTU. Values are declared on Wake County's mini-split permits (68 that state one, between $500 and $60,000); Brunswick County's trade permits often carry the whole project's value, so they're left out. Contractors are as named on the permits.
• Program details are from DEQ's February 10, 2026 announcement and Energy Saver North Carolina's program updates page as published in October 2026. Permit and license rules are as written in G.S. 160D-1110, 87-21 and 87-43 in October 2026. These numbers line up with a summer of add-on rooms; they can't show why each homeowner chose a mini-split.