Is new home construction slowing down in North Carolina? Where 2026 permits fell, and where they didn't.

On October 20 the Census Bureau reported that the United States authorized new housing at an annual rate of 1.40 million units in September 2026, 3.0 percent below September 2025, and that single-family permits fell 4.0 percent from August. Housing starts were 7.4 percent below a year earlier. North Carolina's own permit records, which show each new house as its local office records it, tell a more useful story for anyone who builds or supplies them: the slowdown has arrived in some counties and skipped others entirely.

Quick answers

The national numbers

The Census Bureau's monthly new residential construction report for September 2026, released October 20, put privately owned housing units authorized by building permits at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,400,000: 0.2 percent below August and 3.0 percent below September 2025's 1,444,000. Single-family authorizations ran at 845,000, 4.0 percent below August's 880,000. Starts were 1,221,000, 7.4 percent below a year earlier, though the bureau's own margin of error on that change is wider than the change itself. Read together, they describe a market cooling slowly, not falling off a cliff.

What North Carolina's permits show

TarSignal reads the permit records of each office as they're published. Seven of them have kept a steady record of new single-family homes since January 2024: Johnston, Durham, Gaston, Wake County, Brunswick, Onslow and the City of Greensboro. Taken together, July to September 2026 looked like any other summer: 2,412 permits for new houses against 2,440 a year earlier. The total hides two markets moving in opposite directions.

In Johnston, Durham and Gaston, the third quarter of 2026 had 730 permits for new houses, the fewest of any quarter since at least 2024 and 27 percent fewer than the same months of 2025. The turn came late: through June these three counties were running 7 percent behind last year, and in July to September the gap widened to 27 percent.

Brunswick, Wake County, Onslow and Greensboro went the other way. Their spring of 2026 was the busiest quarter in these records, 2,106 permits, and July to September added 1,682, 17 percent more than a year earlier.

Johnston County: the same builders, fewer houses each

Johnston was the heart of the Triangle's growth ring in our July look at the region, and it's where the slowdown shows most. Its permit office filed 231 permits for new houses in July to September, against 368 a year earlier. The drop isn't one large builder leaving: 69 companies were named on Johnston's new-home permits last quarter, against 64 a year earlier, and the five busiest of them filed 87 homes, against 111. Nearly every builder is simply starting fewer. Meanwhile Johnston's permits to replace heating and cooling systems rose 9 percent over the same months, from 431 to 468: the existing homes still need work even as fewer new ones begin.

Townhomes are falling faster than houses

Townhome permits in the same seven offices fell 18 percent from January to September, from 3,070 to 2,512. Greensboro's fell 58 percent and Durham's 38 percent, and Johnston's 29 percent. Wake County's office was the exception, up 23 percent to 884, and Onslow's rose from 134 to 216.

What it means for your business

• Framers, roofers, HVAC, plumbing and electrical subs on new construction: if most of your work is in Johnston, Durham or Gaston, expect fewer starts into the winter than last year, and line up work in the counties still growing. Brunswick and Wake County's office both filed more new homes this summer than last.
• Suppliers and distributors: each permit is a house that will need framing, roofing, windows and systems in the months after it's filed. A quarter with 27 percent fewer permits in three counties means fewer of those orders there into 2027.
• Builders: where permits fell, subcontractors may have more room in their schedules than a year ago. Where they rose, expect them to be as busy as ever.
• Repair and replacement trades: the slowdown is in new homes. In Johnston, system change-outs rose while new-home permits fell, which is a reason to keep a service side alongside new-construction work.

Every permit counted here is in TarSignal's Permit Search. Filter to new construction and a county to see each new house as it's filed, with its address, builder and value, or set up a daily alert for the counties you work in.

How these numbers were counted

• A new single-family home is a permit for new construction of a detached house, as each office types it; townhomes are counted separately. Permits are counted by the date they were filed with the office or, in Johnston, Durham, Brunswick and Greensboro, which publish only an issue date, the date issued. Windows are January to September and July to September of 2025 and 2026, to September 30.
• Only offices whose record of new homes stayed steady since January 2024 are included. Mecklenburg, Raleigh, Cary, Union, Alamance, Wilmington and Asheville are left out because the records we hold for them grew over the period, which would make a trend look like a jump. Cabarrus and Guilford County aren't included because their records don't separate new houses the same way.
• Gaston and Onslow date permits by filing and publish them once issued, usually within about a week, so September's counts there may still rise slightly.
• Builder counts use the company named on each permit, with spellings of the same name merged. Gaston and Onslow don't name the contractor on their permits.
• National figures are from the Census Bureau's New Residential Construction release for September 2026, published October 20, 2026.